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   Wednesday, September 18, 2019 

Tropical Storm & Hurricane Advisories  
National Hurricane Center (NHC) / Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)

Weather Advisories concerning active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico from the United States National Weather Service.


 Current Advisories     

Photo from NOAA The information is automatically updated by the United States National Weather Service via a direct feed. During a storm, this information is updated frequently. You may need to refresh your browser to get the latest news.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

<br/> 000<br/> ABNT20 KNHC 180508<br/> TWOAT <br/> <br/> Tropical Weather Outlook<br/> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br/> 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019<br/> <br/> For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br/> <br/> The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane<br/> Humberto, located a few hundred miles west of Bermuda, and on<br/> Tropical Depression Ten, located nearly 1000 miles east of the<br/> Leeward Islands.<br/> <br/> An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend to the<br/> east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this<br/> system is possible as it moves west to west-northwestward over the<br/> islands and across the eastern Caribbean.<br/> * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br/> * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.<br/> <br/> A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa<br/> on Thursday. Some gradual development is possible over the weekend<br/> while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.<br/> * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br/> * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.<br/> <br/> &&<br/> <br/> Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under<br/> WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.<br/> Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under<br/> WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.<br/> <br/> $$<br/> Forecaster Latto<br/>

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 4

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov">Weather Prediction Center</a> will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO'S EYE CROSSING A NOAA BUOY... ...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 31.7, -69.6 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 <pre> 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180846 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HUMBERTO'S EYE CROSSING A NOAA BUOY... ...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 69.6W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 69.6 West. Humberto has increased its forward speed and is moving toward the east- northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy reported a wind gust to 89 mph (144 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches) as the eye of Humberto was approaching. The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila </pre>

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 <pre> 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180846 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 69.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 69.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 69.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA </pre>

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 <pre> 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180847 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone in a few hours. Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not very different from the previous one. Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt. Humberto is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north- northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later today. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 31.7N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila </pre>

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 <pre> 000 FONT14 KNHC 180846 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 69 27(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BERMUDA 50 3 37(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA </pre>

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084844.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL092019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:48:44 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084844.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL092019_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:24:57 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 14.1, -47.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 <pre> ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN </pre>

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 <pre> ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN </pre>

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 <pre> ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the system the tenth named storm of the season. Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so, to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN </pre>

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 <pre> ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 2(37) X(37) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN </pre>

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/090345.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/AL102019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:03:45 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/090345.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/AL102019_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:32:16 GMT

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