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   Saturday, September 19, 2020 

Tropical Storm & Hurricane Advisories  
National Hurricane Center (NHC) / Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)

Weather Advisories concerning active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico from the United States National Weather Service.


 Current Advisories     

Photo from NOAA The information is automatically updated by the United States National Weather Service via a direct feed. During a storm, this information is updated frequently. You may need to refresh your browser to get the latest news.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

<br/> 000<br/> ABNT20 KNHC 190510<br/> TWOAT <br/> <br/> Tropical Weather Outlook<br/> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br/> 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020<br/> <br/> For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br/> <br/> The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical <br/> Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane <br/> Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm <br/> Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National <br/> Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which <br/> became post-tropical over northern Portugal.<br/> <br/> Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now <br/> located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to <br/> continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over <br/> marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The <br/> cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical <br/> characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more <br/> information about marine hazards associated with this system, see <br/> High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. <br/> * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. <br/> * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.<br/> <br/> A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will <br/> move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few <br/> days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur <br/> during the next few days.<br/> * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. <br/> * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.<br/> <br/> &&<br/> <br/> Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO <br/> header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. <br/> Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued <br/> under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.<br/> <br/> High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO <br/> header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at <br/> www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ <br/> metarea2<br/> <br/> $$<br/> Forecaster Zelinsky<br/>

Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 the center of Beta was located near 25.8, -92.2 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190533 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 92.2W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin late today. A slow northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast early next week. Maximum sustained are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast late Sunday. RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi </pre>

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190257 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG </pre>

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190258 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged northeastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying through that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57 kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwest of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the region of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical storm. The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12 hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn westward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas coast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spread among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its closest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed by the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5. Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some further strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the most aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Beta is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening is forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly shear and possible land interaction. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 25.5N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg </pre>

Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 FONT12 KNHC 190258 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) BURAS LA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) 3(25) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 49 15(64) 4(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) 2(74) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 2(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 5(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 4(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 6(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 5(20) GFMX 280N 930W 34 35 40(75) 11(86) 2(88) 2(90) X(90) 1(91) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 30(32) 13(45) 3(48) 1(49) 2(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 2(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 5(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 4(20) 6(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 3 15(18) 12(30) 7(37) 7(44) 4(48) 6(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 4(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 8(20) 6(26) 5(31) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 1 15(16) 16(32) 15(47) 12(59) 4(63) 3(66) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 3(22) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 15(27) 7(34) 4(38) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 3(21) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 2(21) FREEPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 17(43) 5(48) 4(52) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 25(28) 29(57) 17(74) 8(82) 2(84) 1(85) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) 19(38) 11(49) 2(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 1(21) 1(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 11(28) 6(34) 4(38) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 19(49) 16(65) 5(70) 2(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 4(32) 2(34) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 19(46) 19(65) 5(70) 2(72) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 18(30) 5(35) 2(37) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 23(42) 10(52) 2(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 11(44) 2(46) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 10(11) 27(38) 22(60) 14(74) 6(80) X(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 14(40) 5(45) 2(47) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 2(24) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 10(28) 2(30) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 10(28) 1(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 9(25) 12(37) 9(46) 1(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 3(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG </pre>

Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/053340.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT22/AL222020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:33:40 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/053340.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT22/AL222020_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:33:46 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/053340.shtml?inundation"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/images/inundation_thumb.png" alt="Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map" width="60" height="48" /></a><br/> Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 04:11:40 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/053340.shtml?wsurge"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/images/wsurge_thumb.png" alt="Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map" width="60" height="48" /></a><br/> Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:58:56 GMT

Local Statement for Brownsville, TX

Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)

...POORLY ORGANIZED WILFRED STILL A STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Wilfred was located near 12.8, -36.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED WILFRED STILL A STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.0W ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Saturday before weakening likely begins by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts </pre>

Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190245 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS </pre>

Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 <pre> 241 WTNT43 KNHC 190246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred's surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it's apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy's massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts </pre>

Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 FONT13 KNHC 190245 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS </pre>

Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024743.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT23/AL232020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Wilfred 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:47:43 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024743.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT23/AL232020_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Tropical Storm Wilfred 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:41:18 GMT

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha (AT4/AL242020)

...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 the center of Alpha was located near 40.9, -6.9 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain tapers off later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Roberts </pre>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190235 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 7.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 6.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS </pre>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190236 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal. Therefore, this the last NHC advisory. Surface wind data support an initial intensity of 25 kt. The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by Saturday night. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered deterministic guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 40.9N 6.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts </pre>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 FONT14 KNHC 190235 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS </pre>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023745.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/AL242020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023745.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/AL242020_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:48:58 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 24.4, -57.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 27A

Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late Sunday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky </pre>

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 57.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH </pre>

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 <pre> 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However, Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model consensus. Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch </pre>

Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 <pre> 000 FONT15 KNHC 190257 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 23(47) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 14(63) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 16(66) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 4(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 5(67) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 2(35) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 12(49) X(49) X(49) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH </pre>

Hurricane Teddy Graphics

<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/053559.shtml?cone"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/AL202020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png" alt="Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image" width="500" height="400" /></a><br/> 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:35:59 GMT <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/053559.shtml?tswind120"> <img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/AL202020_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png" alt="Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities" width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/> Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT

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